{"id":29021,"date":"2024-04-09T12:56:56","date_gmt":"2024-04-09T10:56:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/carta-trimestral-primer-trimestre-2024-2\/"},"modified":"2024-04-12T15:06:38","modified_gmt":"2024-04-12T13:06:38","slug":"carta-trimestral-primer-trimestre-2024-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/ca\/carta-trimestral-primer-trimestre-2024-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Carta Trimestral Primer Trimestre 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section fb_built=\u00bb1″ admin_label=\u00bbsection\u00bb _builder_version=\u00bb4.16″ global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][et_pb_row admin_label=\u00bbrow\u00bb _builder_version=\u00bb4.16″ background_size=\u00bbinitial\u00bb background_position=\u00bbtop_left\u00bb background_repeat=\u00bbrepeat\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00bb4.16″ custom_padding=\u00bb|||\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb custom_padding__hover=\u00bb|||\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00bb4.20.4″ _module_preset=\u00bbdefault\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb]<\/p>\n

Qu\u00e8 ha passat el primer trimestre de 2024?<\/b><\/span><\/h1>\n

 <\/p>\n

El primer trimestre de 2024 ha comen\u00e7at de manera molt positiva en els \u00e0mbits macroecon\u00f2mic i microecon\u00f2mic. <\/span><\/p>\n

En el pla macroecon\u00f2mic, s’ha consolidat un escenari d’aterratge suau per a l’economia, mentre que en el microecon\u00f2mic, les empreses en general estan reportant bons resultats.<\/span><\/p>\n

A m\u00e9s, el sentiment dels inversors, mesurat pel Sentix, tamb\u00e9 \u00e9s optimista.<\/span><\/p>\n

Existeix cert consens a esperar un creixement mundial i un alentiment de la inflaci\u00f3, encara que es preveu m\u00e9s tard de l’esperat. <\/span><\/p>\n

Aix\u00f2 ha portat al fet que les expectatives de baixades de tipus d’inter\u00e8s de la Reserva Federal americana (FED) i del Banc Central Europeu (BCE) s’hagin adaptat, retardant-les fins a l’\u00faltim semestre de l’any.<\/span><\/p>\n

No obstant aix\u00f2, si fem una an\u00e0lisi m\u00e9s detalladament veiem que el mercat pot estar sent complaent, ja que existeixen alguns riscos:<\/span><\/p>\n

En el pla macroecon\u00f2mic:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Riscos geopol\u00edtics, com els conflictes b\u00e8l\u00b7lics a Ucra\u00efna i Orient Mitj\u00e0.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Riscos econ\u00f2mics, com el conflicte comercial i tecnol\u00f2gic entre els Estats Units i la Xina, aix\u00ed com l’elevat volum de deute.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    En el pla microecon\u00f2mic:<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    • Els resultats empresarials, tant a Europa com a gran part dels Estats Units, no han sigut tan bons, a excepci\u00f3 de les 7 magn\u00edfiques.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Per tant, \u00e9s necessari estar atent a aquests riscos, aix\u00ed com a les eleccions americanes que incrementaran la incertesa en un moment on no s’albiren catalitzadors i sembla que totes les bones not\u00edcies ja estiguin descomptades.<\/span><\/p>\n

      En aquest context la diverg\u00e8ncia i la dispersi\u00f3 en les rendibilitats segons zones geogr\u00e0fiques, actius i sectors representen una oportunitat per a la gesti\u00f3 activa. <\/span><\/p>\n

      Encara que tant l’any passat com aquest, la gesti\u00f3 passiva ha tingut un bon acompliment impulsat pels bons resultats de les principals companyies integrants, com podem veure en el seg\u00fcent gr\u00e0fic:<\/span><\/p>\n

      [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=\u00bbhttps:\/\/ginvest.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/JP-Morgan-Contribution-7-magnificient.png\u00bb title_text=\u00bbJP Morgan Contribution 7 magnificient\u00bb _builder_version=\u00bb4.20.4″ _module_preset=\u00bbdefault\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00bb4.20.4″ _module_preset=\u00bbdefault\u00bb hover_enabled=\u00bb0″ global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb sticky_enabled=\u00bb0″]<\/p>\n

      No obstant aix\u00f2, durant aquest primer trimestre algunes d’aquestes empreses s’han retirat d’aquest enfocament, la qual cosa ens porta a preveure que la selecci\u00f3 ser\u00e0 encara m\u00e9s crucial enguany i una font important d’alfa.<\/span><\/p>\n

      A m\u00e9s, tant els EUA com Europa estan travessant un cicle d’ajust desincronizat. <\/span><\/p>\n

      La pand\u00e8mia de COVID-19 i les creixents tensions geopol\u00edtiques han ressaltat la vulnerabilitat en termes energ\u00e8tics i tecnol\u00f2gics en aquestes regions, la qual cosa ha portat a una tend\u00e8ncia de \u00abrelocalitzaci\u00f3\u00bb per a recuperar l’autonomia econ\u00f2mica i tecnol\u00f2gica.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Totes dues regions s’han embarcat en aquest proc\u00e9s amb resultats desiguals. <\/span><\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Estats Units i Europa<\/b><\/span><\/h3>\n

      Als Estats Units, s’ha impulsat a trav\u00e9s de pol\u00edtiques fiscals com l’Acta IRA, Xips Act o Infraestructure Act, que han facilitat la \u00abrelocalitzaci\u00f3\u00bb de cadenes de subministrament i l’atracci\u00f3 d’empreses estrangeres al territori nord-americ\u00e0. <\/span><\/p>\n

      Aix\u00f2 ha afavorit l’ocupaci\u00f3 i el creixement econ\u00f2mic fomentant un dinamisme que tamb\u00e9 impulsa a les petites i mitjanes companyies prove\u00efdores.<\/span><\/p>\n

      A aquest, estan realitzant una transici\u00f3 energ\u00e8tica aprofitant la intel\u00b7lig\u00e8ncia artificial com una eina disruptiva en aquesta transformaci\u00f3 integral de l’economia. <\/span><\/p>\n

      Per exemple, els projectes renovables iniciats als EUA aquest 2024 dupliquen els d’Europa. <\/span><\/p>\n

      En canvi, Europa no est\u00e0 aconseguint els mateixos resultats.<\/span><\/p>\n

      D’altra banda, aquesta repatriaci\u00f3 als Estats Units i la cerca d’una menor depend\u00e8ncia de la Xina en tecnologia i energies renovables, afavoreix la fragmentaci\u00f3 i beneficia a altres pa\u00efsos \u201camics\u201d com l’\u00cdndia, Vietnam o M\u00e8xic.<\/span><\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Xina<\/b><\/span><\/h3>\n

      la Xina amb un creixement \u201cesperat\u201d del 5% enguany es mant\u00e9 com una inc\u00f2gnita per la falta de confian\u00e7a del consumidor derivada de la crisi immobili\u00e0ria encara latent. <\/span><\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Jap\u00f3<\/b><\/span><\/h3>\n

      Tot lo contrari que a Xina. \u00c9s un mercat que aporta descorrelaci\u00f3n i que disposa d’uns catalitzadors propis: reformes corporatives empresarials, est\u00edmuls governamentals o millora de la retribuci\u00f3 a l’inversor.<\/span><\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Com han reaccionat els mercats financers?<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Aquest nou entorn econ\u00f2mic pot donar lloc a una major diverg\u00e8ncia no sols entre regions geogr\u00e0fiques o sectors, com hem esmentat, sin\u00f3 tamb\u00e9 entre classes d’actius.<\/span><\/p>\n

      La diversificaci\u00f3 \u00e9s una dels avantatges de la inversi\u00f3 en multiactius per\u00f2 \u00e9s m\u00e9s beneficiosa quan la rendibilitat dels diferents actius es mou de manera diferent, \u00e9s a dir, no est\u00e0 ben correlacionada.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Aquest nou entorn econ\u00f2mic pot donar lloc a una major diverg\u00e8ncia no sols entre regions geogr\u00e0fiques o sectors, com hem esmentat, sin\u00f3 tamb\u00e9 entre classes d’actius.<\/span><\/p>\n

      La Renda Fixa, en tot el seu espectre, ja representa una oportunitat en si mateixa en oferir una rendibilitat sense risc.<\/span><\/p>\n

      L’exc\u00e9s de liquiditat que ha contribu\u00eft a mantenir molts actius a l’al\u00e7a des de la crisi financera mundial est\u00e0 retrocedint a mesura que els bancs centrals retiren est\u00edmuls i augmenten les tensions geopol\u00edtiques. <\/span><\/p>\n

      Les pujades del bitcoin i l’or aix\u00ed ho corroboren.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Una bona selecci\u00f3 ser\u00e0 clau en un any que s’antulla favorable a les carteres multiactiu.<\/span><\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Rendibilitats Ginvest Asset Management<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n

      En aquest context, les rendibilitats acumulades en el trimestre van ser:<\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
      • Ginvest GPS Conservative: 1,32% <\/span><\/li>\n
      • Ginvest GPS Balanced: 3,42% <\/span><\/li>\n
      • Ginvest GPS Dynamic: 5,08%<\/span><\/li>\n
      • Ginvest GPS Long Term: 7,24% <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Durant el trimestre els fons s’han mantingut neutrals quant a assignaci\u00f3 d’actius (Renda Variable i Renda Fixa).<\/span><\/p>\n

         <\/p>\n

        Renda Fixa<\/b><\/span><\/h3>\n

        Quant a selecci\u00f3, en Renda Fixa prioritzem fons amb durades baixes en ser els que ofereixen un major rendiment amb un menor risc i gaireb\u00e9 sense volatilitat. Dins d’aquest segment ens inclinem pel cr\u00e8dit d’alta qualitat credit\u00edcia sent selectius en el cr\u00e8dit de baixa qualitat en oferir una millor rendibilitat.<\/span><\/p>\n

        Mantenim una petita posici\u00f3 t\u00e0ctica en durada a trav\u00e9s de governs globals a l’\u00e9sser els principals beneficiaris en moments de volatilitat.<\/span><\/p>\n

         <\/p>\n

        Renda Variable<\/b><\/span><\/h3>\n

        Quant a Renda Variable, les nostres conviccions basades en diferents motors de creixement com s\u00f3n el Jap\u00f3 i els seus catalitzadors propis, \u00c0sia i la seva ingent classe mitjana, la disrupci\u00f3 tecnol\u00f2gica en els diversos sectors o la inversi\u00f3 en els beneficiaris de la relocalitzaci\u00f3 ens han aportat valor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

        Referent al nostre posicionament t\u00e0ctic en USD, actualment no tenim risc d\u00f2lar mantenint cobertures per a tots aquells fons exposats a aquesta divisa.<\/span><\/p>\n

        [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_button button_url=\u00bbhttps:\/\/ginvest.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Abril_2024_carta-trimestral.pptx-1.pdf\u00bb button_text=\u00bbLlegir m\u00e9s\u00bb _builder_version=\u00bb4.20.4″ _module_preset=\u00bbdefault\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Qu\u00e8 ha passat el primer trimestre de 2024?   El primer trimestre de 2024 ha comen\u00e7at de manera molt positiva en els \u00e0mbits macroecon\u00f2mic i microecon\u00f2mic. En el pla macroecon\u00f2mic, s’ha consolidat un escenari d’aterratge suau per a l’economia, mentre que en el microecon\u00f2mic, les empreses en general estan reportant bons resultats. A m\u00e9s, el […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":30401,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5,33,79,68],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","category-educacio-financera","category-visio-de-mercats","category-vision-de-mercados"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCarta Trimestral Primer Trimestre 2024 - GINVEST<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Carta Trimestral Primer Trimestre 2024. 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