{"id":30483,"date":"2024-07-10T08:46:18","date_gmt":"2024-07-10T06:46:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/carta-trimestral-segon-trimestre-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-07-10T11:56:47","modified_gmt":"2024-07-10T09:56:47","slug":"carta-trimestral-segon-trimestre-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/ca\/carta-trimestral-segon-trimestre-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"CARTA TRIMESTRAL SEGON TRIMESTRE 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section fb_built=\u00bb1″ admin_label=\u00bbsection\u00bb _builder_version=\u00bb4.16″ global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][et_pb_row admin_label=\u00bbrow\u00bb _builder_version=\u00bb4.20.4″ background_size=\u00bbinitial\u00bb background_position=\u00bbtop_left\u00bb background_repeat=\u00bbrepeat\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00bb4.16″ custom_padding=\u00bb|||\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb custom_padding__hover=\u00bb|||\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00bb4.20.4″ _module_preset=\u00bbdefault\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb]<\/p>\n

Qu\u00e8 ha passat en el segon trimestre de 2024?<\/span><\/h1>\n

El creixement econ\u00f2mic mundial continua sent resilient, encara que amb unes certes difer\u00e8ncies regionals. L’economia dels EUA mostra un lleuger alentiment, mentre que les economies europees, a excepci\u00f3 de l’alemanya, estan accelerant. La inflaci\u00f3 persisteix per\u00f2 no s’espera que augmenti. Els tipus d’inter\u00e8s han estat rebaixats moderadament a Europa i s’anticipa una reducci\u00f3 similar als Estats Units abans de finalitzar l’any.<\/span><\/p>\n

Factors d’incertesa<\/span><\/h2>\n

1.Eleccions franceses<\/strong>: La fragmentaci\u00f3 en els resultats i la p\u00e8rdua d’autoritat de Macron generen dificultats per a aconseguir acords, en un context d’elevada despesa p\u00fablica i cr\u00edtiques de la UE per la deterioraci\u00f3 fiscal.<\/span><\/p>\n

2.Eleccions a Estats Units<\/strong>: La incertesa sobre el candidat dem\u00f2crata i l’augment de la despesa en els programes electorals de tots dos partits afegeixen incertesa, en un moment de d\u00e8ficit fiscal r\u00e8cord.<\/span><\/p>\n

3.Guerra comercial<\/strong>: Les tensions comercials entre els EUA\/Europa i la Xina podrien augmentar la inflaci\u00f3 futura. Els conflictes geopol\u00edtics tamb\u00e9 s\u00f3n una preocupaci\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

Reaccions del mercat<\/span><\/h2>\n
    \n
  • \n

    Renda Variable<\/strong>: Beneficiada per les expectatives de baixades de tipus d’inter\u00e8s i el creixement econ\u00f2mic positiu. El S&P 500 va pujar un 3,92%, liderat pel sector tecnol\u00f2gic en el Nasdaq (+8,26%). Europa i el Jap\u00f3 van mostrar menors augments, liderats per valors c\u00edclics. Els mercats emergents tamb\u00e9 van mostrar bons rendiments, amb la Xina impulsant la confian\u00e7a del consumidor.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

     <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n

      Renda Fixa<\/strong>: Millor rendibilitat en segments de major risc. El deute p\u00fablic es va veure penalitzada per la reducci\u00f3 d’expectatives de baixades de tipus. Els \u00edndexs de Renda Fixa Corporativa i Governs van tenir rendiments negatius.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

       <\/p>\n

        \n
      • \n

        Divises<\/strong>: El d\u00f2lar es va depreciar un -0,71%.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Perspectives<\/span><\/h2>\n
          \n
        • \n

          Estats Units<\/strong>: S’espera un creixement m\u00e9s lent a causa de l’alt cost dels pr\u00e9stecs i una menor demanda interna. La Reserva Federal mant\u00e9 una pol\u00edtica de tipus alts. La pol\u00edtica fiscal expansiva post-COVID ha incrementat el d\u00e8ficit pressupostari.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

           <\/p>\n

            \n
          • \n

            Europa<\/strong>: S’anticipa un creixement s\u00f2lid impulsat per esdeveniments com els Jocs Ol\u00edmpics de Par\u00eds i altres competicions. La inflaci\u00f3 es mant\u00e9 entorn del 3%, i el Banc Central Europeu podria realitzar m\u00e9s retallades de tipus.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

             <\/p>\n

              \n
            • \n

              Mercats emergents<\/strong>: S’espera una estabilitzaci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica a la Xina, la qual cosa podria millorar la confian\u00e7a del consumidor i les valoracions del mercat. La relocalitzaci\u00f3 de cadenes de subministrament beneficia a pa\u00efsos com l’\u00cdndia, Vietnam, ASEAN i M\u00e8xic.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

               <\/p>\n

                \n
              • \n

                Jap\u00f3<\/strong>: L’economia mostra solidesa amb un consum en augment, inflaci\u00f3 estable i una depreciaci\u00f3 del ien. Les mesures del govern estan impulsant el consum i la retribuci\u00f3 a l’accionista.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                Riscos i oportunitats<\/span><\/h2>\n
                  \n
                • \n

                  Conflictes geopol\u00edtics<\/strong>: Les tensions a Gaza i Ucra\u00efna continuaran impactant les cadenes de subministrament i el cost de mat\u00e8ries primeres.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                   <\/p>\n

                    \n
                  • \n

                    Riscos pol\u00edtics<\/strong>: Les retallades d’impostos i aranzels als EUA i les eleccions a Fran\u00e7a i el Regne Unit s\u00f3n factors d’incertesa.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                     <\/p>\n

                      \n
                    • \n

                      Renda Fixa<\/strong>: Aporta valor com a diversificaci\u00f3 enfront d’una possible desacceleraci\u00f3 i com a font d’ingressos en un entorn de tipus alts.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                       <\/p>\n

                        \n
                      • \n

                        Renda Variable<\/strong>: La inversi\u00f3 activa en tem\u00e0tiques de creixement estructural, com la desglobalizaci\u00f3n i la intel\u00b7lig\u00e8ncia artificial, pot ser beneficiosa.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                         <\/p>\n

                        En conclusi\u00f3, malgrat les diverses incerteses i riscos, les perspectives de creixement global continuen sent positives. Una gesti\u00f3 activa i diversificada \u00e9s clau per a navegar aquest entorn econ\u00f2mic vol\u00e0til.<\/span><\/p>\n

                        [\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                        Qu\u00e8 ha passat en el segon trimestre de 2024? El creixement econ\u00f2mic mundial continua sent resilient, encara que amb unes certes difer\u00e8ncies regionals. L’economia dels EUA mostra un lleuger alentiment, mentre que les economies europees, a excepci\u00f3 de l’alemanya, estan accelerant. La inflaci\u00f3 persisteix per\u00f2 no s’espera que augmenti. Els tipus d’inter\u00e8s han estat rebaixats […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":30495,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[79],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-visio-de-mercats"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCARTA TRIMESTRAL SEGON TRIMESTRE 2024 - GINVEST<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Qu\u00e8 ha passat en el segon trimestre de 2024?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/ca\/carta-trimestral-segundo-trimestre-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CARTA TRIMESTRAL SEGON TRIMESTRE 2024 - 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