{"id":34525,"date":"2025-07-11T11:27:02","date_gmt":"2025-07-11T09:27:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/?p=34525"},"modified":"2025-07-11T11:27:53","modified_gmt":"2025-07-11T09:27:53","slug":"vision-de-mercados-junio-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/ca\/vision-de-mercados-junio-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Visi\u00f3 de mercats juny 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section fb_built=\u00bb1″ admin_label=\u00bbsection\u00bb _builder_version=\u00bb4.16″ global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][et_pb_row admin_label=\u00bbrow\u00bb _builder_version=\u00bb4.16″ background_size=\u00bbinitial\u00bb background_position=\u00bbtop_left\u00bb background_repeat=\u00bbrepeat\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00bb4.16″ custom_padding=\u00bb|||\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb custom_padding__hover=\u00bb|||\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00bb4.20.4″ _module_preset=\u00bbdefault\u00bb hover_enabled=\u00bb0″ global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb sticky_enabled=\u00bb0″]<\/p>\n

Visi\u00f3 de mercats juny 2025<\/strong><\/h1>\n

El mes de maig va estar marcat per la desescalada aranzel\u00e0ria, fet que va comportar una millora del sentiment i la confian\u00e7a. Tamb\u00e9 es va anunciar el primer acord comercial de Trump, en aquest cas amb el Regne Unit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tant les dades macroecon\u00f2miques \u2014que, encara que mixtes, van reflectir una bona salut de l\u2019economia global\u2014 com els resultats empresarials, amb Nvidia al capdavant, van ser positius i van acompanyar aquest sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n

A mitjan mes, Moody\u2019s va rebaixar la qualificaci\u00f3 credit\u00edcia del deute sobir\u00e0 dels Estats Units a Aa1, citant un augment projectat del d\u00e8ficit fiscal fins al 9,4% del PIB el 2025, davant del 6,4% el 2024. Aquesta rebaixa va coincidir amb la tramitaci\u00f3 del projecte de llei \u201cOne Big Beautiful Bill Act\u201d del president Trump, que podria incrementar significativament el deute nacional en la pr\u00f2xima d\u00e8cada.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tot aix\u00f2 es va traduir en pujades de les borses: l\u2019S&P 500 va avan\u00e7ar un 6,29%, liderat pel sector tecnol\u00f2gic, amb el Nasdaq registrant un increment del 9,65%. A m\u00e9s, una s\u00f2lida temporada de resultats empresarials \u2014amb un 77% de les companyies presentant xifres positives\u2014 va contribuir a aquest impuls. Europa va pujar un 5%, recolzada tamb\u00e9 en uns bons resultats empresarials i en la pr\u00f2rroga, per part dels EUA, de l\u2019aplicaci\u00f3 de l\u2019aranzel del 50% sobre b\u00e9ns fins al 9 de juliol. Les petites companyies tamb\u00e9 van mostrar un bon comportament, anticipant la desregulaci\u00f3 i les millores fiscals que probablement comporti el nou projecte de llei \u201cOne Big Beautiful Bill Act\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Al Jap\u00f3, l\u2019\u00edndex Nikkei va pujar un 5,33%, tot i el repte que suposa una inflaci\u00f3 m\u00e9s elevada i un menor creixement de l\u2019economia.<\/span><\/p>\n

En el bloc emergent va destacar la Xina, amb una pujada del 2,02%, a l\u2019espera de negociacions amb els EUA. Les dades publicades aquest mes ja reflecteixen un debilitament del sector manufacturer, amb algunes companyies exportadores anunciant pitjors resultats.<\/span><\/p>\n

Per contra, el mercat de renda fixa va mostrar un comportament neutre. El tram llarg de la corba va registrar m\u00e9s volatilitat a causa de la creixent preocupaci\u00f3 per l\u2019elevat nivell de deute i d\u00e8ficit p\u00fablic als EUA, la menor demanda en les noves emissions de deute a llarg termini i el possible increment de l\u2019endeutament derivat del nou projecte de llei fiscal nord-americ\u00e0. El deute sobir\u00e0 d\u2019altres pa\u00efsos amb posicions fiscals m\u00e9s febles tamb\u00e9 es va veure afectat, com en el cas del Jap\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pel que fa al cr\u00e8dit, el tram corporatiu d\u2019alta qualitat credit\u00edcia (Bloomberg Global Aggregate Credit <\/span>Index) va rendir un 0,10% durant el mes, mentre que el tram corporatiu de baixa qualitat credit\u00edcia (Bloomberg Global Aggregate High Yield Index) va aportar una rendibilitat positiva de l\u20191,56% al maig davant d\u2019un major apetit pel risc.<\/span><\/p>\n

En aquest entorn, el d\u00f2lar va acabar el mes en els mateixos nivells que l\u2019havia iniciat: 1,14 EUR\/USD.<\/span><\/p>\n

Posicionament Asset Allocation<\/b><\/p>\n

En aquest entorn complaent, una cartera ben diversificada entre regions i classes d\u2019actius ajuda a reduir el risc d\u2019una inflaci\u00f3 a l\u2019al\u00e7a als EUA i d\u2019un menor creixement global esperat davant de tanta incertesa.<\/span><\/p>\n

Renda Fixa<\/b><\/p>\n

Preferim l\u2019estabilitat i la bona rendibilitat del curt termini davant de la volatilitat del llarg termini, m\u00e9s afectat per la incertesa actual pel que fa a la inflaci\u00f3, l\u2019elevat nivell de deute o el creixement, per exemple.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dins del curt termini estem invertits en renda fixa corporativa d\u2019alta qualitat credit\u00edcia, juntament amb una selecci\u00f3 d\u2019emissions de baixa qualitat credit\u00edcia per\u00f2 en els trams m\u00e9s alts de prelaci\u00f3, aprofitant que les empreses encara disposen de balan\u00e7os sanejats. Ofereixen un rendiment m\u00e9s gran pel que fa al cup\u00f3, amb una menor afectaci\u00f3 davant de variacions en els preus. Dit d\u2019una altra manera, ens amortiran possibles caigudes en els actius de risc alhora que, en moments de pujades, van contribuint a poc a poc a la rendibilitat gr\u00e0cies a disposar d\u2019un cup\u00f3 gener\u00f3s.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Renda Variable<\/b><\/p>\n

En un mercat on fins l\u2019any passat es buscava la beta de mercat invertint en gesti\u00f3 passiva, sense importar si les companyies estaven cares o barates, i concentrant el risc als EUA, s\u2019ha passat a un mercat que prioritza la diversificaci\u00f3 i les baixes valoracions, tot donant protagonisme a la gesti\u00f3 activa.<\/span><\/p>\n

En aquest context tan incert i imprevisible, mantenim una visi\u00f3 prudent, infraponderant lleugerament la renda variable i diversificant regionalment.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pel que fa als sectors, continuem sobreponderats en el financer, que es beneficiar\u00e0 d\u2019una corba de rendiments m\u00e9s pronunciada i de la possible desregulaci\u00f3 durant l\u2019administraci\u00f3 Trump. Els bancs i les entitats financeres presenten una bona din\u00e0mica de beneficis i cotitzen <\/span>amb valoracions raonables. Tamb\u00e9 en intel\u00b7lig\u00e8ncia artificial, com a sector de creixement estructural a llarg termini. T\u00e0cticament, el real estate europeu, per les seves baixes valoracions, el bon momentum i l\u2019alt dividend.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pel que fa al d\u00f2lar, mantenim la m\u00ednima exposici\u00f3 possible. En aquest entorn, on els fluxos surten dels EUA cap a altres zones geogr\u00e0fiques, el d\u00f2lar continuar\u00e0 depreciant-se. No est\u00e0 funcionant com a actiu refugi, per\u00f2 no considerem, tanmateix, que hagi de perdre el seu estatus de moneda de reserva.<\/span><\/p>\n

I ara qu\u00e8 podem esperar?<\/b><\/p>\n

L\u2019entorn actual de mercat \u00e9s de complaen\u00e7a per diversos motius:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 La liquiditat continua en m\u00e0xims, cosa que alimenta l\u2019apetit pel risc.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 Encara que \u00e9s cert que les dades macroecon\u00f2miques que es van publicant es van afeblint, la situaci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica encara \u00e9s bona i la inflaci\u00f3 es mant\u00e9 controlada. Aquesta incertesa actual no s\u2019ha reflectit en les dades de l\u2019economia real.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 Pel que fa als resultats de les empreses, un cop publicats els resultats del primer trimestre, aquestes encara no han traslladat a les valoracions aquest menor creixement esperat de l\u2019economia i la major inflaci\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tanmateix, aquest canvi en les regles de joc de l\u2019economia mundial, encara sense con\u00e8ixer-ne el desenlla\u00e7, tindr\u00e0 conseq\u00fc\u00e8ncies i, d\u2019entrada, comporta diverses inc\u00f2gnites:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 Quin impacte tindr\u00e0 la pol\u00edtica migrat\u00f2ria aplicada als EUA en el treball qualificat, sobretot en sectors com la intel\u00b7lig\u00e8ncia artificial, amb una ingent necessitat <\/span>de m\u00e0 d\u2019obra? En els salaris pagats o en la inflaci\u00f3?<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 La pol\u00edtica fiscal que es vol aprovar cont\u00e9 un increment substancial del deute, a m\u00e9s d\u2019exempcions i beneficis fiscals per a les empreses. Qu\u00e8 valorar\u00e0 m\u00e9s el mercat? Un increment positiu de les valoracions per a la renda variable o un tensionament del tram llarg de la corba de deute sobir\u00e0?<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 Imposici\u00f3 definitiva pel que fa a les tarifes aranzel\u00e0ries. Quina implicaci\u00f3 tindr\u00e0 per als diferents pa\u00efsos pel que fa a les cadenes de subministrament (desviament d\u2019exportacions xineses amb destinaci\u00f3 als EUA cap a Europa)? A m\u00e9s, provocar\u00e0 un efecte desinflacionista (menor demanda) a la resta del m\u00f3n, mentre que per al consumidor nord-americ\u00e0 comportar\u00e0 una p\u00e8rdua de poder adquisitiu en actuar com un impost. Els EUA s\u2019encaminen cap a un entorn inflacionista, mentre que per a la resta seria m\u00e9s aviat deflacionista.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 Tamb\u00e9 comportar\u00e0 la creaci\u00f3 d\u2019aliances entre pa\u00efsos fora dels EUA que podrien canviar els fluxos comercials actuals. Els diferents pa\u00efsos buscaran mesures d\u2019est\u00edmul intern, com pol\u00edtiques monet\u00e0ries expansives o fiscals, per estimular les seves economies. A Europa, una altra acci\u00f3 a dur a terme seria flexibilitzar la regulaci\u00f3 per tal de donar suport a la pr\u00f2pia ind\u00fastria del pa\u00eds, per exemple.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tot aix\u00f2 sense oblidar l\u2019evoluci\u00f3 dels diferents conflictes b\u00e8l\u00b7lics o la lluita d\u2019egos.<\/span><\/p>\n

Segons quines siguin les respostes, l\u2019escenari cap al qual evolucionarem ser\u00e0 diferent, per\u00f2 hem de tenir en compte que, per a Trump, el proper objectiu \u00e9s guanyar les eleccions MidTerm de l\u2019any vinent. Per aconseguir-ho necessitar\u00e0 comptar amb uns mercats financers que l\u2019acompanyin.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Visi\u00f3n de mercados junio 2025 El mes de Mayo estuvo marcado por la desescalada arancelaria lo que conllev\u00f3 mejora del sentimiento y confianza. Hubo anuncio tambi\u00e9n del primer acuerdo comercial de Trump, en este caso con Reino Unido. Tanto los datos macroecon\u00f3micos que, aunque mixtos indicaron buena salud de la econom\u00eda global, como los resultados […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":34528,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5,68],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","category-vision-de-mercados"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nVisi\u00f3n de mercados junio 2025 - GINVEST<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/ca\/vision-de-mercados-junio-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Visi\u00f3n de mercados junio 2025 - GINVEST\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Visi\u00f3n de mercados junio 2025 El mes de Mayo estuvo marcado por la desescalada arancelaria lo que conllev\u00f3 mejora del sentimiento y confianza. 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