{"id":24660,"date":"2023-03-05T18:21:46","date_gmt":"2023-03-05T17:21:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/\/estimats-doomsters\/"},"modified":"2023-06-23T09:39:01","modified_gmt":"2023-06-23T09:39:01","slug":"estimats-doomsters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/eus\/estimats-doomsters\/","title":{"rendered":"Estimats doomsters"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cMar regirat guany de pescadors\u201d<\/h2>\n

Aquest vell refrany tradu\u00eft a l\u2019argot financer significa que en moments d\u2019extrema volatilitat \u00e9s quan es poden trobar les millors oportunitats en el mercat.<\/p>\n

En les seg\u00fcents l\u00ednies els vull explicar per qu\u00e8 opino fermament que ens trobem en un moment molt favorable per a la inversi\u00f3, en contra del que pensen molts fatalistes o com se\u2019ls sobrenomena en el mercat, \u201cdoomsters\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u00c9s f\u00e0cil d\u2019entendre que l\u2019inversor actual no comparteixi el mateix punt de vista. Fa 16 mesos que portem mercat baixista on nom\u00e9s hem tingut petits repunts a manera d\u2019alleujament i tots els catalitzadors a escala global semblen no millorar. Per\u00f2 el nostre treball, \u00e9s estudiar les condicions a l\u2019entorn d\u2019inversi\u00f3, especialment el comportament dels inversors i comprendre on es troba el mercat dins del cicle econ\u00f2mic allunyant-nos de tot el que \u00e9s soroll.<\/p>\n

En aquest article, els vull transmetre totes aquelles raons per les quals ser optimistes i exposar totes aquelles oportunitats que veig en els nostres dos principals actius, la renda fixa i la renda variable, i per descomptat sense perdre de vista l\u2019entorn macroecon\u00f2mic.<\/p>\n

El despertar de la renda fixa<\/h2>\n

Comencem per la part de renda fixa. Com saben els nostres volguts co-inversors aquest actiu \u00e9s un dels quals m\u00e9s ha sofert l\u2019actual crisi d\u2019inflaci\u00f3 i la posterior pujada de tipus. Fa a penes uns anys la majoria de bons d\u2019alt rendiment estaven oferint TIRs del 3-4% i fins i tot alguns d\u2019ells sortien al mercat oferint nom\u00e9s un 2%. Per\u00f2 avui dia la cosa ha canviat, aquests bons rendeixen al voltant del 8% i les taxes de default continuen sent de les m\u00e9s baixes de la hist\u00f2ria. Aix\u00f2 ens brinda grans oportunitats en renda fixa, on tan sols augmentant una mica la durada i el risc de cr\u00e8dit podem obtenir una gran rendibilitat per a inversors de perfil moderat.<\/p>\n

D\u2019altra banda, esperem que la inflaci\u00f3 s\u2019estabilitzi aquest 2023 i comenci una tend\u00e8ncia a la baixa durant la segona meitat d\u2019any, la qual cosa provocaria una frenada en l\u2019escalada de tipus. La mateixa FED ja no parla de pujades, sin\u00f3 si aquestes continuaran. No obstant aix\u00f2, en cap cas anticipem retallades dels tipus. Aix\u00f2 implica que en els pr\u00f2xims anys podrien obtenir-se les millors rendibilitats en renda fixa i aix\u00f2 \u00e9s una molt bona not\u00edcia per als inversors menys arriscats.<\/p>\n

Renda Variable en oferta<\/h2>\n

En un mercat alcista, quan valorem les empreses de les diferents maneres que ens explica Miquel Cantenys en diversos dels seus articles<\/a>, podem arribar a diferents interpretacions de si una empresa est\u00e0 cara o barata, ja que influeixen m\u00faltiples aspectes. Molt diferent \u00e9s quan ens trobem en un mercat baixista com l\u2019actual, on al meu entendre, es comencen a veure cotitzacions d\u2019empreses molt infravalorades. Com deia John Templeton, \u201cquan els mercats estan al punt m\u00e0xim de pessimisme \u00e9s moment de comprar\u201d.<\/p>\n

Si ens fixem en la part americana, podem trobar diversos exemples on els seus m\u00faltiples es troben m\u00e9s d\u2019un 20% per sota de la seva mitjana hist\u00f2rica com \u00e9s el cas d\u2019una de les nostres principals posicions en cartera Alphabet (Google) i fins i tot algunes altres com a Meta (Facebook) els seus m\u00faltiples cotitzen un 40% per sota de la mitjana dels \u00faltims anys. Totes dues empreses les trobem en un dels nostres principals fons, l\u2019Amundi \u00cdndex S&P 500. Hem de destacar que la temporada de resultats empresarials ha sortit millor de l\u2019esperat, als EUA el 75% de les empreses cotitzades han batut estimacions.<\/p>\n

A Europa, tan sols si ens fixem en la r\u00e0tio preu\/benefici de la mitjana del Stoxx 600 podem veure que aquest cotitza amb un descompte del 25% respecte a la seva mitjana. Destaquem, per exemple, Commerzbank una de les primeres posicions del fons Magallanes Value, que actualment el seu PER cotitza amb un descompte de m\u00e9s del 50% i les seves altres r\u00e0tios molt per sota de la seva mitjana hist\u00f2rica<\/p>\n

Tot aix\u00f2 em porta a pensar que des d\u2019una visi\u00f3 global i amb una perspectiva de mitj\u00e0 i llarg termini \u00e9s un molt bon moment per a comprar companyies de qualitat, a preus m\u00e9s que raonables. Empreses que han incrementat la seva inversi\u00f3 en innovaci\u00f3 amb l\u2019objectiu de reduir costos, substituir productes, materials o aquells serveis menys afectats per la pujada dels preus. Per aix\u00f2, continuem invertint principalment en fons amb companyies que aposten especialment per la digitalitzaci\u00f3 i la tecnologia, ja que creiem que ser\u00e0 un dels principals vents de cua de la d\u00e8cada vinent.<\/p>\n

Entorn Macroecon\u00f2mic<\/h2>\n

En primer lloc, la reobertura de la Xina suscita esperances. Despr\u00e9s de m\u00e9s de 3 anys amb tancaments massius i pol\u00edtiques Covid zero, la Xina dona un cop de tim\u00f3 i espera tenir una recuperaci\u00f3 c\u00edclica. Actualment, la base d\u2019estalvi i la taxa de dip\u00f2sits de la Xina \u00e9s molt important i es creu que amb la reobertura, una gran part d\u2019aquest capital es destinar\u00e0 a b\u00e9ns i serveis del mateix pa\u00eds, la qual cosa s\u2019espera que augmenti els beneficis de les empreses durant els pr\u00f2xims 12 mesos.<\/p>\n

En conson\u00e0ncia, s\u2019espera que \u00c0sia tingui en general un molt bon comportament durant els pr\u00f2xims anys a causa de la gran reducci\u00f3 de costos que est\u00e0 experimentant el mercat.<\/p>\n

En segon lloc, estem a les portes d\u2019una revoluci\u00f3 digital. Sens dubte la gran majoria d\u2019analistes, estem d\u2019acord que la d\u00e8cada vinent estar\u00e0 marcada per la intel\u00b7lig\u00e8ncia artificial, la rob\u00f2tica i l\u2019emmagatzematge d\u2019energia. Els tres junts es preveu que representin un canvi de paradigma similar a la internet.<\/p>\n

La intel\u00b7lig\u00e8ncia artificial pot accelerar multitud de processos en tots els sectors econ\u00f2mics, on afectaran l\u2019usuari final, que canviar\u00e0 la seva manera de gastar, treballar i gaudir del seu temps lliure. Per posar un exemple, una IA pot produir un model d\u2019imatge per 0.08\u20ac i en menys d\u2019un minut, en canvi, un hum\u00e0 trigaria 5 hores i tindria un cost de 150\u20ac.<\/p>\n

D\u2019altra banda, la rob\u00f2tica, encara que tamb\u00e9 vingui catalitzada per la IA, reduir\u00e0 enormement els costos de producci\u00f3 i augmentar\u00e0 el rendiment i precisi\u00f3 de les peces finals.<\/p>\n

Finalment, l\u2019emmagatzematge de l\u2019energia canviar\u00e0 tot el nostre sistema de mobilitat a trav\u00e9s de la conducci\u00f3 aut\u00f2noma, reduint de manera brutal els costos i transformat el paisatge de totes les ciutats.<\/p>\n

En conclusi\u00f3<\/h2>\n

La suma de les rendibilitats en renda fixa m\u00e9s les empreses infravalorades i un entorn econ\u00f2mic potencialment favorable ens ofereixen una de les millors oportunitats en els nostres temps per a la inversi\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Ressaltar que aquesta perspectiva es tracta \u00fanicament de l\u2019opini\u00f3 d\u2019un servidor i d\u2019una convicci\u00f3 a llarg termini, ja que com hem dit sempre, el curt termini \u00e9s impredictible.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cMar regirat guany de pescadors\u201d Aquest vell refrany tradu\u00eft a l’argot financer significa que en moments d’extrema volatilitat \u00e9s quan…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":24330,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[58],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-article"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEstimats doomsters - GINVEST<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/eus\/estimats-doomsters\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Estimats doomsters - 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