{"id":24734,"date":"2022-09-01T07:48:02","date_gmt":"2022-09-01T07:48:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/\/com-invertir-en-temps-de-recessio\/"},"modified":"2023-06-23T09:51:12","modified_gmt":"2023-06-23T09:51:12","slug":"com-invertir-en-temps-de-recessio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/eus\/com-invertir-en-temps-de-recessio\/","title":{"rendered":"Com invertir en temps de recessi\u00f3?"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

Com podem afirmar que l\u2019economia i com a conseq\u00fc\u00e8ncia la societat ha \u201ccrescut\u201d o ha \u201cdecrescut\u201d fruit de tots canvis succe\u00efts en els darrers anys?<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Darrerament, ens trobem immersos en una vor\u00e0gine de not\u00edcies que de manera impertinent alteren les nostres vides i patrons de conducta de manera abrupta i sobtada.<\/p>\n

Doncs b\u00e9, aquests dos conceptes estan estretament lligats al que coneixem com el producte interior brut (PIB). En termes econ\u00f2mics, es coneix com a creixement, l\u2019acumulaci\u00f3 de dos trimestres consecutius en positiu, \u00e9s a dir que el valor total del PIB superi el valor del trimestre anterior. Per contra, ens trobem t\u00e8cnicament en recessi\u00f3 quan s\u2019acumulen dos trimestres consecutius on el PIB disminueix.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Si considerem que el PIB \u00e9s un indicador rellevant. Com es mesura? Quines s\u00f3n les variables que afecten?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

El PIB es mesura segons la seg\u00fcent expressi\u00f3:<\/p>\n

PIB= C + I + G + X \u2013 M<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

C: Consum de les fam\u00edlies<\/h6>\n
I: Inversi\u00f3 empresarial<\/h6>\n
G: Despesa p\u00fablica<\/h6>\n
X: Exportacions<\/h6>\n
M: Importacions<\/h6>\n<\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tal i com s\u2019observa, podem concloure que el PIB equival al valor de producci\u00f3 total d\u2019un pa\u00eds. \u00c9s l\u2019 indicador que s\u2019utilitza per a mesurar la grand\u00e0ria d\u2019una economia i determinar si es troba en fase de \u201ccreixement\u201d o \u201crecessi\u00f3\u201d.<\/p>\n

Avaluar les taxes de creixement de les economies \u00e9s una de les principals tasques tant de la Reserva Federal com del Banc Central Europeu, donat que les decisions en mat\u00e8ria de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e0ria venen condicionades per aquestes taxes. D\u2019 aquesta manera, s\u2019implementaran pol\u00edtiques expansives per a evitar recessions i pol\u00edtiques contractives per a controlar l\u2019 evoluci\u00f3 de la inflaci\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Enguany hem trobat una inflaci\u00f3 disparada en els dos primers trimestres, tant la Reserva Federal com el Banc Central Europeu han pres cartes en l\u2019assumpte, elevant els tipus d\u2019inter\u00e8s.<\/p>\n

Davant d\u2019 aquestes pujades de tipus, l\u2019objectiu dels organismes responsables de la pol\u00edtica monet\u00e0ria dels Estats Units i de la Zona Euro respectivament, \u00e9s refredar la demanda de b\u00e9ns de consum i inversi\u00f3, per tal de rebaixar la pressi\u00f3 sobre els preus dels productes i serveis de les seves economies. Incidint en la variable que t\u00e9 major import\u00e0ncia en el c\u00e0lcul del PIB, la \u201cC\u201d (el consum de les fam\u00edlies).<\/p>\n

Una pujada del tipus d\u2019inter\u00e8s implica un encariment del preu dels diners i aix\u00f2 tindr\u00e0 una afectaci\u00f3 directa en la renda disponible de les fam\u00edlies que veuran redu\u00efda la seva capacitat de consum.<\/p>\n

En aquest \u00faltim trimestre, s\u2019ha confirmat que els Estats Units ha entrat en el que hem definit com a recessi\u00f3 t\u00e8cnica, amb dos trimestres consecutius de contracci\u00f3 del seu PIB.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

I qu\u00e8 n\u2019opinen els mercats sobre aquest fet?<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Com podem deduir, una recessi\u00f3 ve precedida per una baixada en els mercats financers. Com s\u2019ha explicat anteriorment que si es redueix el \u201cC\u201d (consum de les fam\u00edlies), les empreses tamb\u00e9 veuran redu\u00efts els seus ingressos, aix\u00ed com tamb\u00e9 es reduiran els seus beneficis.<\/p>\n

Recentment hem viscut recessions significatives, l\u2019any 2001 a conseq\u00fc\u00e8ncia de l\u2019esclat de la bombolla dels preus de les accions tecnol\u00f2giques. Posteriorment, en 2008 per l\u2019exc\u00e9s de deute concedit per les entitats banc\u00e0ries i de manera inesperada el 2020, provocada per la pand\u00e8mia del covid-19.<\/p>\n

Cada recessi\u00f3 acostuma a estar lligada a un sector concret que veur\u00e0 greument afectat el seu desenvolupament. I aquesta \u00e9s la clau. En moments d\u2019inestabilitat hem de ser capa\u00e7os d\u2019identificar tres possibles comportaments:<\/p>\n

\u2013 Empreses que tindran major sensibilitat o dit d\u2019una altra manera, quines s\u00f3n les que estan cotitzant per sobre del valor que realment aporten. Algunes d\u2019aquestes no seran capaces de recuperar-se o, fins i tot, desapareixeran. Per exemple, veiem el cas del sector financer on encara a dia d\u2019 avui estem veient les fusions entre entitats banc\u00e0ries, conseq\u00fc\u00e8ncia de la recessi\u00f3 del 2008.<\/p>\n

\u2013 Empreses que pel context de recessi\u00f3 es troben infravalorades pel mercat per\u00f2 amb models de negoci s\u00f2lids i capa\u00e7os de continuar generant beneficis en el llarg termini. Si ens remuntem a la crisi provocada per la pand\u00e8mia durant el 2020, el sector del turisme va experimentar una aturada for\u00e7ada per tornar de nou a l\u2019efervesc\u00e8ncia que estem observant aquest mateix estiu.<\/p>\n

\u2013 Empreses amb models de negoci disruptius capa\u00e7os de canviar fins i tot els nostres h\u00e0bits de consum. Si tornem a l\u2019any 2020, podrem veure com aquelles companyies que ens aportaven benestar des de casa en moments de confinament, com Netflix, Zoom,\u00a0 Shopify o Amazon, van experimentar fortes pujades a la borsa.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Per a ampliar la informaci\u00f3 sobre la valoraci\u00f3 d\u2019una companyia pot accedir al seg\u00fcent enlla\u00e7. Quant pagaries per una empresa? Valoraci\u00f3 per m\u00faltiples.<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Com hem d\u2019invertir?<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Com hem vist, en moments d\u2019incertesa econ\u00f2mica els inversors hauran de fer front al risc i a la volatilitat del mercat. Davant aquest escenari veiem la import\u00e0ncia de comptar amb un assessor expert que ens pugui orientar, ens ajudi a identificar aquestes oportunitats i poder aprofitar-les.<\/p>\n

Amb una bona planificaci\u00f3 financera, una bona composici\u00f3 d\u2019actius en cartera i l\u2019acompanyament d\u2019un professional podrem afrontar les recessions amb total tranquil\u00b7litat.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Aniol Vinaixa
\n<\/a><\/h3>\n
Assessor Patrimonial<\/h5>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Com podem afirmar que l’economia i com a conseq\u00fc\u00e8ncia la societat ha \u201ccrescut\u201d o ha \u201cdecrescut\u201d fruit de tots canvis…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":24360,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sin-categorizar"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCom invertir en temps de recessi\u00f3? - GINVEST<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/eus\/com-invertir-en-temps-de-recessio\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Com invertir en temps de recessi\u00f3? 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