{"id":28165,"date":"2024-01-18T09:40:08","date_gmt":"2024-01-18T08:40:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/?p=28165"},"modified":"2024-06-03T16:46:04","modified_gmt":"2024-06-03T14:46:04","slug":"carta-trimestral-cuarto-trimestre-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/eus\/carta-trimestral-cuarto-trimestre-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Carta Trimestral Cuarto Trimestre 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section fb_built=\u00bb1&#8243; admin_label=\u00bbsection\u00bb _builder_version=\u00bb4.16&#8243; global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][et_pb_row admin_label=\u00bbrow\u00bb _builder_version=\u00bb4.16&#8243; background_size=\u00bbinitial\u00bb background_position=\u00bbtop_left\u00bb background_repeat=\u00bbrepeat\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00bb4_4&#8243; _builder_version=\u00bb4.16&#8243; custom_padding=\u00bb|||\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb custom_padding__hover=\u00bb|||\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00bb4.20.4&#8243; _module_preset=\u00bbdefault\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb]<\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"color: #000000;\">CARTA TRIMESTRAL CUARTO TRIMESTRE 2023<\/span><\/h1>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00bfQu\u00e9 ha pasado durante el 2023?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">El a\u00f1o 2023 estuvo marcado por la incertidumbre sobre la evoluci\u00f3n de los tipos de inter\u00e9s y su afectaci\u00f3n a la econom\u00eda, despu\u00e9s de las significativas subidas tanto en Europa como en EEUU que hubo el a\u00f1o anterior.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">La persistente <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/update\/urn:li:activity:7145337451002204160\">inflaci\u00f3n<\/a>, un mercado laboral en niveles m\u00e1ximos en EEUU y, en menor medida, en Europa, sugirieron al principio del a\u00f1o la necesidad de mantener una pol\u00edtica monetaria restrictiva, generando preocupaciones sobre el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">En marzo, el colapso de Silicon Valley Bank en EEUU y Credit Suisse en Europa hicieron saltar todas las alarmas devolviendo la volatilidad a los mercados despu\u00e9s de un principio de a\u00f1o m\u00e1s complaciente.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Adem\u00e1s, una inestabilidad geopol\u00edtica creciente con el conflicto b\u00e9lico en Ucrania, la <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/update\/urn:li:activity:7142864433470488577\">guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China<\/a>, los recortes de producci\u00f3n de la OPEP o el conflicto israel\u00ed y sus derivaciones, tampoco ayudaron.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Sin embargo, en el \u00faltimo trimestre del a\u00f1o, la publicaci\u00f3n de unos datos de inflaci\u00f3n mejores de lo esperado y unas declaraciones del presidente de la Reserva Federal norteamericana m\u00e1s complacientes hicieron aumentar las expectativas de recortes de tipos de inter\u00e9s a principios del 2024 y alejaron la perspectiva de un aterrizaje brusco de la econom\u00eda.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00bfC\u00f3mo han reaccionado los mercados financieros?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Todo ello se tradujo a los mercados financieros con un comportamiento irregular de los activos financieros hasta el tercer trimestre, cuando el optimismo por la posible baja de tipos y un aterrizaje suave comportaron subidas en casi todos los activos.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">En Renta Variable los mercados con mayores subidas en el a\u00f1o fueron:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">&#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/update\/urn:li:activity:7132360964217184256\">Japonia<\/a> con una subida del 32,82% gracias a su descorrelaci\u00f3n respecto al resto de mercados. Mantiene un crecimiento estable, una pol\u00edtica monetaria ultra expansiva e impulsa medidas de reformas empresariales para favorecer la eficiencia de las empresas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">&#8211; EEUU con una rentabilidad en el \u00edndice S&amp;P500 del 22,99% liderado por las \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/update\/urn:li:activity:7130521535055806465\">siete magn\u00edficas<\/a>\u201d (Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Tesla y Amazon) gracias a la tecnolog\u00eda y a la irrupci\u00f3n de la inteligencia artificial generativa.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">En cuanto a la Renta Fija, los tipos de inter\u00e9s elevados fijados por los Bancos Centrales brindaron buena rentabilidad, especialmente en tramos cortos de duraci\u00f3n. Adem\u00e1s, en el \u00faltimo trimestre, la noticia de posibles bajadas de tipos de inter\u00e9s tambi\u00e9n conllev\u00f3 ganancias en los tramos m\u00e1s largos de duraci\u00f3n. Cerrando el a\u00f1o con un 4.56% de rentabilidad para la deuda gubernamental y un 6.51% para la deuda corporativa.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Ante este escenario el d\u00f3lar se depreci\u00f3 un 3,12% en el a\u00f1o.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">En este contexto, las rentabilidades acumuladas en el a\u00f1o fueron del 5,04% para el <a href=\"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/eus\/conservative-selection\/\">Ginvest GPS Conservative<\/a>, 9,40% para el <a href=\"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/eus\/balanced-selection\/\">Ginvest GPS Balanced<\/a>, 12,52% para el <a href=\"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/eus\/dynamic-selection\/\">Ginvest GPS Dynamic<\/a> y 15,87% para el <a href=\"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/eus\/long-term-equity-selection\/\">Ginvest GPS Long Term<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00bfCu\u00e1les son las perspectivas para 2024?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Aunque la inflaci\u00f3n en Europa y <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/update\/urn:li:activity:7151229987377819648\">EE. UU.<\/a> parece haber tocado techo, los bancos centrales tendr\u00e1n problemas para conseguir alcanzar su objetivo de mantener la inflaci\u00f3n al 2%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">La situaci\u00f3n geopol\u00edtica ha empeorado con la continuaci\u00f3n de la guerra de Ucrania, la <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/update\/urn:li:activity:7152967593249681409\">escalada de violencia en Oriente Medio<\/a> y las ocupadas agendas pol\u00edticas con <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/update\/urn:li:activity:7150403346187591681\">elecciones presidenciales<\/a> en medio mundo que se perfilan como fuentes de volatilidad adicional.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">El riesgo principal que parecen encarar los mercados en 2024, a priori, ser\u00e1 en qu\u00e9 grado se ralentizar\u00e1 el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">En este contexto, desde Ginvest, continuamos estando en fondos de compa\u00f1\u00edas de calidad que inviertan en aquellos sectores estructurales generadores de rentabilidad, independientemente del escenario econ\u00f3mico del 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00bfCu\u00e1les son las convicciones de Ginvest?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Nuestras convicciones a largo plazo son la disrupci\u00f3n digital liderada por la IA, la desglobalizaci\u00f3n provocada por la competencia estrat\u00e9gica entre EEUU y <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/update\/urn:li:activity:7153505873934331904\">China<\/a>, el incremento de tensiones geopol\u00edticas, la transici\u00f3n hacia una econom\u00eda baja en carbono y zonas geogr\u00e1ficas descorrelacionadas es decir, ajenas al binomio inflaci\u00f3n\/crecimiento, como ser\u00edan Jap\u00f3n o Asia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Adem\u00e1s, se han introducido t\u00e1cticas como invertir en peque\u00f1as compa\u00f1\u00edas o sectores beneficiados por el entorno actual de mercado.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">En Renta Fija, ante el incierto panorama econ\u00f3mico, por la parte de cr\u00e9dito nos mantenemos en la seguridad relativa ofrecida por la deuda con grado de inversi\u00f3n en lugar de la deuda de alto rendimiento.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">En cuanto a duraciones, durante todo el 2023 nos mantuvimos con duraciones elevadas, anticipando bajadas de tipos que comenzaron a materializarse en el tercer trimestre, por lo que decidimos reducirla a finales de a\u00f1o.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">El escenario que se proyecta para 2024, con bajo crecimiento econ\u00f3mico y con tipos de inter\u00e9s elevados dada una inflaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s persistente de lo esperado, es un entorno perfecto para construir carteras diversificadas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">El inversor dispone actualmente de una amplia gama de fuentes de rentabilidad desde la rentabilidad que ofrece la Renta Fija a corto plazo y casi sin riesgo hasta la Renta Fija de mayor duraci\u00f3n o cr\u00e9dito en el largo plazo, aumentando el binomio rentabilidad\/riesgo con la perspectiva de m\u00e1s largo plazo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Y, si la estrategia lo permite, posicion\u00e1ndose en Renta Variable ya que los conflictos b\u00e9licos, recesiones econ\u00f3micas o cualquier otro acontecimiento negativo generan oportunidades de inversi\u00f3n para aquellos inversores que est\u00e1n dispuestos a asumir la incertidumbre inherente que siempre conlleva el mercado.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CARTA TRIMESTRAL CUARTO TRIMESTRE 2023 &nbsp; \u00bfQu\u00e9 ha pasado durante el 2023? El a\u00f1o 2023 estuvo marcado por la incertidumbre sobre la evoluci\u00f3n de los tipos de inter\u00e9s y su afectaci\u00f3n a la econom\u00eda, despu\u00e9s de las significativas subidas tanto en Europa como en EEUU que hubo el a\u00f1o anterior. La persistente inflaci\u00f3n, un mercado [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":29918,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Carta Trimestral Cuarto Trimestre 2023 - GINVEST<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Carta Trimestral Cuarto Trimestre 2023 de Ginvest Asset Management. \u00bfCu\u00e1les son las perspectivas para 2024? \u00bfQu\u00e9 ha pasado durante el 2023?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/eus\/carta-trimestral-cuarto-trimestre-2023\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Carta Trimestral Cuarto Trimestre 2023 - GINVEST\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Carta Trimestral Cuarto Trimestre 2023 de Ginvest Asset Management. \u00bfCu\u00e1les son las perspectivas para 2024? 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