{"id":30475,"date":"2024-07-10T08:46:18","date_gmt":"2024-07-10T06:46:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/?p=30475"},"modified":"2024-07-10T11:56:53","modified_gmt":"2024-07-10T09:56:53","slug":"carta-trimestral-segundo-trimestre-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/eus\/carta-trimestral-segundo-trimestre-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Carta Trimestral Segundo Trimestre 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section fb_built=\u00bb1″ admin_label=\u00bbsection\u00bb _builder_version=\u00bb4.16″ global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][et_pb_row admin_label=\u00bbrow\u00bb _builder_version=\u00bb4.20.4″ background_size=\u00bbinitial\u00bb background_position=\u00bbtop_left\u00bb background_repeat=\u00bbrepeat\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00bb4.16″ custom_padding=\u00bb|||\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb custom_padding__hover=\u00bb|||\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00bb4.20.4″ _module_preset=\u00bbdefault\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb]<\/p>\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 ha pasado en el segundo trimestre de 2024?<\/span><\/h1>\n

El crecimiento econ\u00f3mico mundial sigue siendo resiliente, aunque con ciertas diferencias regionales. La econom\u00eda estadounidense muestra una ligera ralentizaci\u00f3n, mientras que las econom\u00edas europeas, a excepci\u00f3n de la alemana, est\u00e1n acelerando. La inflaci\u00f3n persiste pero no se espera que aumente. Los tipos de inter\u00e9s han sido rebajados moderadamente en Europa y se anticipa una reducci\u00f3n similar en Estados Unidos antes de finalizar el a\u00f1o.<\/span><\/p>\n

Factores de incertidumbre<\/span><\/h2>\n

1.Elecciones francesas<\/strong>: La fragmentaci\u00f3n en los resultados y la p\u00e9rdida de autoridad de Macron generan dificultades para lograr acuerdos, en un contexto de elevado gasto p\u00fablico y cr\u00edticas de la UE por el deterioro fiscal.<\/span><\/p>\n

2.Elecciones en Estados Unidos<\/strong>: La incertidumbre sobre el candidato dem\u00f3crata y el aumento del gasto en los programas electorales de ambos partidos a\u00f1aden incertidumbre, en un momento de d\u00e9ficit fiscal r\u00e9cord.<\/span><\/p>\n

3.Guerra comercial<\/strong>: Las tensiones comerciales entre EE.UU.\/Europa y China podr\u00edan aumentar la inflaci\u00f3n futura. Los conflictos geopol\u00edticos tambi\u00e9n son una preocupaci\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n

Reacciones del mercado<\/span><\/h2>\n
    \n
  • \n

    Errenta Aldakorra<\/strong>: Beneficiada por las expectativas de bajadas de tipos de inter\u00e9s y el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico positivo. El S&P 500 subi\u00f3 un 3,92%, liderado por el sector tecnol\u00f3gico en el Nasdaq (+8,26%). Europa y Jap\u00f3n mostraron menores aumentos, liderados por valores c\u00edclicos. Los mercados emergentes tambi\u00e9n mostraron buenos rendimientos, con China impulsando la confianza del consumidor.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

     <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n

      Errenta Finkoa<\/strong>: Mejor rentabilidad en segmentos de mayor riesgo. La deuda p\u00fablica se vio penalizada por la reducci\u00f3n de expectativas de bajadas de tipos. Los \u00edndices de Renta Fija Corporativa y Gobiernos tuvieron rendimientos negativos.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

       <\/p>\n

        \n
      • \n

        Divisas<\/strong>: El d\u00f3lar se depreci\u00f3 un -0,71%.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Perspectivas<\/span><\/h2>\n
          \n
        • \n

          Estados Unidos<\/strong>: Se espera un crecimiento m\u00e1s lento debido al alto costo de los pr\u00e9stamos y una menor demanda interna. La Reserva Federal mantiene una pol\u00edtica de tipos altos. La pol\u00edtica fiscal expansiva post-COVID ha incrementado el d\u00e9ficit presupuestario.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

           <\/p>\n

            \n
          • \n

            Europa<\/strong>: Se anticipa un crecimiento s\u00f3lido impulsado por eventos como los Juegos Ol\u00edmpicos de Par\u00eds y otras competiciones. La inflaci\u00f3n se mantiene en torno al 3%, y el Banco Central Europeo podr\u00eda realizar m\u00e1s recortes de tipos.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

             <\/p>\n

              \n
            • \n

              Mercados emergentes<\/strong>: Se espera una estabilizaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica en China, lo que podr\u00eda mejorar la confianza del consumidor y las valoraciones del mercado. La relocalizaci\u00f3n de cadenas de suministro beneficia a pa\u00edses como India, Vietnam, ASEAN y M\u00e9xico.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

               <\/p>\n

                \n
              • \n

                Japonia<\/strong>: La econom\u00eda muestra solidez con un consumo en aumento, inflaci\u00f3n estable y una depreciaci\u00f3n del yen. Las medidas del gobierno est\u00e1n impulsando el consumo y la retribuci\u00f3n al accionista.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                Riesgos y oportunidades<\/span><\/h2>\n
                  \n
                • \n

                  Conflictos geopol\u00edticos<\/strong>: Las tensiones en Gaza y Ucrania seguir\u00e1n impactando las cadenas de suministro y el costo de materias primas.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                   <\/p>\n

                    \n
                  • \n

                    Riesgos pol\u00edticos<\/strong>: Los recortes de impuestos y aranceles en EE.UU. y las elecciones en Francia y Reino Unido son factores de incertidumbre.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                     <\/p>\n

                      \n
                    • \n

                      Errenta Finkoa<\/strong>: Aporta valor como diversificaci\u00f3n frente a una posible desaceleraci\u00f3n y como fuente de ingresos en un entorno de tipos altos.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                       <\/p>\n

                        \n
                      • \n

                        Errenta Aldakorra<\/strong>: La inversi\u00f3n activa en tem\u00e1ticas de crecimiento estructural, como la desglobalizaci\u00f3n y la inteligencia artificial, puede ser beneficiosa.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                         <\/p>\n

                        En conclusi\u00f3n, a pesar de las diversas incertidumbres y riesgos, las perspectivas de crecimiento global siguen siendo positivas. Una gesti\u00f3n activa y diversificada es clave para navegar este entorno econ\u00f3mico vol\u00e1til.<\/span><\/p>\n

                        [\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                        \u00bfQu\u00e9 ha pasado en el segundo trimestre de 2024? El crecimiento econ\u00f3mico mundial sigue siendo resiliente, aunque con ciertas diferencias regionales. La econom\u00eda estadounidense muestra una ligera ralentizaci\u00f3n, mientras que las econom\u00edas europeas, a excepci\u00f3n de la alemana, est\u00e1n acelerando. La inflaci\u00f3n persiste pero no se espera que aumente. Los tipos de inter\u00e9s han sido […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":30494,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[68],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-vision-de-mercados"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCarta Trimestral Segundo Trimestre 2024 - GINVEST<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 ha pasado en el segundo trimestre de 2024?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/eus\/carta-trimestral-segundo-trimestre-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Carta Trimestral Segundo Trimestre 2024 - 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