{"id":30768,"date":"2024-09-10T11:10:43","date_gmt":"2024-09-10T09:10:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/visio-de-mercats-setembre-2024\/"},"modified":"2025-03-25T13:17:32","modified_gmt":"2025-03-25T12:17:32","slug":"visio-de-mercats-setembre-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ginvest.es\/eus\/visio-de-mercats-setembre-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Visi\u00f3 de mercats setembre 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section fb_built=\u00bb1″ _builder_version=\u00bb4.16″ global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00bb4.16″ background_size=\u00bbinitial\u00bb background_position=\u00bbtop_left\u00bb background_repeat=\u00bbrepeat\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00bb4.16″ custom_padding=\u00bb|||\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb custom_padding__hover=\u00bb|||\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00bb4.20.4″ background_size=\u00bbinitial\u00bb background_position=\u00bbtop_left\u00bb background_repeat=\u00bbrepeat\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00bb{}\u00bb]<\/p>\n

Qu\u00e8 ha passat aquest mes?<\/b><\/span><\/h1>\n

Agost va destacar per la forta volatilitat viscuda malgrat acabar sent un mes positiu per als mercats financers. La coincid\u00e8ncia d’unes dades per sota de l’esperat en el mercat laboral nord-americ\u00e0 juntament amb unes febles dades de compra per part de les empreses va acr\u00e9ixer el temor a una recessi\u00f3 de l’economia als EUA. <\/span><\/p>\n

Aix\u00f2, unit a una pujada de tipus d’inter\u00e8s de 0,25% al Jap\u00f3 va posar en dubte la rendibilitat de les estrat\u00e8gies de <\/span>carry trade<\/span><\/i> estrat\u00e8gies que consisteixen a vendre o manllevar un actiu amb un tipus d’inter\u00e8s baix, amb l’objectiu d’utilitzar els ingressos per a finan\u00e7ar la compra d’un altre actiu amb un tipus d’inter\u00e8s m\u00e9s alt guanyant amb la difer\u00e8ncia de tipus), provocant fortes caigudes.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n

Com a resultat el 5 d’Agost el Topix, principal \u00edndex japon\u00e8s, va caure un 12%, la seva major caiguda di\u00e0ria des del dilluns negre de 1987. <\/span><\/p>\n

La resta de mercats de Renda Variable es van veure arrossegats mentre la Renda Fixa es veia beneficiada, actuant ara s\u00ed, com a actiu refugi.<\/span><\/p>\n

No obstant aix\u00f2, a final de mes el mercat va rebotar gr\u00e0cies a unes millors dades d’inflaci\u00f3 disparant les probabilitats de baixada de tipus d’inter\u00e8s als EUA confirmada per Jerome Powell en la trobada de banquers globals que va tenir lloc en Jackson Hole la tercera setmana d’Agost.<\/span><\/p>\n

La deterioraci\u00f3 en les perspectives macroecon\u00f2miques juntament amb una major incertesa pol\u00edtica i l’escalada en els conflictes a Orient Mitj\u00e0 \/ Ucra\u00efna continuaran aportant volatilitat al mercat. <\/span><\/p>\n

La por a una recessi\u00f3 als EUA ens sembla exagerada donada la resili\u00e8ncia del consum i el mercat laboral. A m\u00e9s, el creixement econ\u00f2mic es mant\u00e9 i la inflaci\u00f3 es va moderant amb perspectives de m\u00e9s baixades de tipus d’inter\u00e8s a la vista als EUA. <\/span><\/p>\n

Reacci\u00f3 dels mercats financers<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n

Als EUA, l’\u00edndex americ\u00e0 SP500 va pujar un 2,28% i el Nasdaq va tenir un rendiment del 0,65% afectat pels resultats publicats d’algunes de les empreses que integren l’\u00edndex. <\/span><\/p>\n

Europa va tenir un comportament positiu acabant amb un 1,39% en el mes.<\/span><\/p>\n

el Jap\u00f3 va caure un -2,76% afectat pel canvi de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e0ria, confirmat pel president del seu Banc Central, passant a ser m\u00e9s restrictiva donada la traject\u00f2ria ascendent de la inflaci\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

Els mercats emergents, en global, van tenir un comportament positiu (MSCI Emerging Markets USD) del 1,40%. No obstant aix\u00f2, si desglossem per pa\u00efsos va haver-hi un comportament dispar. Mentre l’\u00cdndia continuava la seva senda alcista secundada per unes dades macroecon\u00f2miques publicades fortes, a la Xina les dades continuen mostrant feblesa malgrat les noves mesures impulsades pel govern per a redre\u00e7ar la situaci\u00f3 del seu sector immobiliari. <\/span> <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

En Renda Fixa, la moderaci\u00f3 de la inflaci\u00f3 juntament amb un \u201caterratge suau\u201d de l’economia van fer augmentar les expectatives de baixades de tipus d’inter\u00e8s per part de la Reserva Federal nord-americana per a aquest Setembre. En aquest escenari, la Renda Fixa Governs (Bloomberg Global Aggregate Government Hedged EUR) va pujar un 0,81% i la Renda Fixa Corporativa (Bloomberg Aggregate Corporate Hedged EUR) augmento un 1,02%. La Renda Fixa cont\u00ednua sent un element diversificador de les carteres per l’alt cup\u00f3 que paga en el curt termini i per la potencial revaloraci\u00f3 de preu en els trams llargs. <\/span><\/p>\n

Quant a divises, el d\u00f2lar es deprecio fins a nivells de 1,1192 EURUSD en el mes superant el rang lateral en qu\u00e8 es troba (1,05-1,10) des de finals 2022 impulsada per les expectatives de baixades de tipus d’inter\u00e8s. Per contra, el ien, davant la pol\u00edtica monet\u00e0ria restrictiva adoptada pel Banc Central japon\u00e8s, cont\u00ednua amb el seu enfortiment acabant el mes amb una apreciaci\u00f3 del 0,54%. <\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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Qu\u00e8 ha passat aquest mes? Agost va destacar per la forta volatilitat viscuda malgrat acabar sent un mes positiu per als mercats financers. La coincid\u00e8ncia d’unes dades per sota de l’esperat en el mercat laboral nord-americ\u00e0 juntament amb unes febles dades de compra per part de les empreses va acr\u00e9ixer el temor a una recessi\u00f3 […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":32730,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[79],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30768","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-visio-de-mercats"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nVisi\u00f3 de mercats setembre 2024 - GINVEST<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Qu\u00e8 ha passat en els mercats financers aquest mes? 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